Beat the close (avg)
+0.58pp
Picks settled
1,018
Win rate
53.2%
Return per pick (book odds)
-4.07%
95% interval +0.15 to +1.00pp over 538 picks across 47 match-days. The interval excludes zero.
Return per pick: 95% interval -11.00 to +2.91% — wide enough that no return can be claimed from it either way.
These two point opposite ways, and both are true. Beating the closing line says the forecast is better than the market’s; the return is what is left after the bookmaker’s margin is paid out of that edge, and the margin is currently several times larger than the edge.
Published as a value pick, settled, at a real recorded entry price, graded forward rather than by a retrospective sweep.
A previously published figure read 53.1% over 769 picks. Same picks, different population — the headline keeps markets later retired and counts only picks carrying a real recorded price. No result changed.
The record
306W–291L–47P across settled picks · 1 void.
Break-even was 50.6% — ahead of the fair line.
At book odds: -41.4u over 1,018 priced picks — the prices these picks were actually taken at.
At fair odds: +1.5% (+24.4u over 643 picks) — model edge against a margin-free line, not an obtainable price.
Average +0.6% vs the closing line across 433 picks.
What this counts
The record counts markets currently published as value picks. Markets we no longer publish as value picks, and in-play calls, are still graded and still shown on their own fixtures — they just do not move this number.
Those 4,846 retired picks returned -6.3%. We retired those markets on this same history, so treat the scoped figure as a description of what we publish now, not as an independent forecast.
A correction, stated in full. A defect let 119 picks that had failed our own edge floor be counted as value picks. They returned -24.7%, so removing them IMPROVES the figure above: as published it was -3.6% over 917 picks. All three are published so the correction can be checked rather than trusted.
Every pick ever settled, all markets: -5.4% (-270.6u over 4,986 priced picks).
Last 90 days
Win rate
51.3%
Return
+1.5%
Current form, against the forward record above.
Graded live
Sample
645
Win rate
51.3%