Bologna vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Bologna vs Sassuolo on 6 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Bologna at 43.1%.
Bologna: 43.1%.
Sassuolo: 28.6%.
Draw: 28.4%.
2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
Bologna are 15th in the table, Sassuolo 10th.
These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.

Bologna take on Sassuolo on 6 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.

Bologna come into this 15th in the Serie A table with 1 point; Sassuolo are 10th on 4 points.

Who does the model favour?

Outcome	Model probability
Bologna	43.1%
Sassuolo	28.6%
Draw	28.4%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

Recent form

Bologna bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Sassuolo have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.

When these two have met

The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 15 March 2026: Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna, Bologna taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Bologna vs Sassuolo analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Serie A table and fixtures
Bologna — Profile, squad and fixtures
Sassuolo — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Bologna or Sassuolo?

The MatchSense model gives Bologna the highest probability at 43.1%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.

When do Bologna and Sassuolo play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 6 September 2026, 16:00 UTC in Serie A.

Which markets are analysed for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Bologna played Sassuolo?

They last met on 15 March 2026, Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna. Across both meetings, Bologna have won 1, Sassuolo 0, with 1 drawn.

How reliable is this estimate?

The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.

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