FOOTBALLChampionshipmatch-recap19/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Burnley vs Derby Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 19 September 2026
Burnley vs Derby finished 1-1 on 19 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Burnley 1-1 Derby.
- Result: A draw.
- The model gave this outcome a 25.5% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Burnley 1-1 Derby in Championship, 19 September 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Burnley vs Derby these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley | 50.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Derby | 24.5% |
The model made Burnley the most likely outcome at 50.0%. What happened was a draw, which it gave 25.5%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Burnley vs Derby analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
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