Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities for 26 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Charlotte vs Chicago Fire on 26 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Charlotte at 39.8%.
- Charlotte: 39.8%.
- Chicago Fire: 33.0%.
- Draw: 27.3%.
- Charlotte are 4th in the table, Chicago Fire 5th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Charlotte welcome Chicago Fire on 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Major League Soccer table, Charlotte are 4th and Chicago Fire 5th, 4 points between them, a single place apart.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Charlotte | 39.8% |
| Chicago Fire | 33.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Charlotte stretch an unbeaten run of 8 into this one, scoring 2.1 a game. Chicago Fire bring a record of 3-4-3 from their last 10, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.9 conceded.
Previous meetings
Chicago Fire have dominated the meetings, taking 3 of 3. They last met on 2 August 2026: Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte, Chicago Fire taking it.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Charlotte vs Chicago Fire analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Charlotte — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Chicago Fire — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Charlotte or Chicago Fire?
The MatchSense model gives Charlotte the highest probability at 39.8%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Charlotte and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Charlotte played Chicago Fire?
They last met on 2 August 2026, Chicago Fire 2-1 Charlotte. Across 3 meetings, Charlotte have won 0, Chicago Fire 3, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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