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FOOTBALLPrimeira Ligamatch-recap19/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model

GIL Vicente vs Maritimo Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 19 September 2026

GIL Vicente vs Maritimo finished 1-1 on 19 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.

Key takeaways

  • Final score: GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo.
  • Result: A draw.
  • The model gave this outcome a 26.9% chance before kick-off.

Final score

GIL Vicente 1-1 Maritimo in Primeira Liga, 19 September 2026.

What the model expected

Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave GIL Vicente vs Maritimo these chances:

OutcomeModel probability
GIL Vicente49.9%
Draw26.9%
Maritimo23.2%

The model made GIL Vicente the most likely outcome at 49.9%. What happened was a draw, which it gave 26.9%.

One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.

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