Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham on 5 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

The model's highest probability outcome is Nottingham Forest at 51.3%.
Nottingham Forest: 51.3%.
Tottenham: 25.6%.
Draw: 23.1%.
4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
Nottingham Forest are 16th in the table, Tottenham 18th.
The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.

Nottingham Forest take on Tottenham on 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

Nottingham Forest sit 16th in the Premier League table on 2 points from 3 games, with Tottenham 18th on 1 point.

The model's read

Outcome	Model probability
Nottingham Forest	51.3%
Tottenham	25.6%
Draw	23.1%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

Nottingham Forest have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Tottenham bring a record of 3-2-5 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.

Previous meetings

The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 14 December 2025: Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham, Nottingham Forest taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

Full Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
Premier League table and fixtures
Nottingham Forest — Profile, squad and fixtures
Tottenham — Profile, squad and fixtures

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Nottingham Forest or Tottenham?

The MatchSense model gives Nottingham Forest the highest probability at 51.3%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.

When do Nottingham Forest and Tottenham play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League.

Which markets are analysed for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Nottingham Forest played Tottenham?

They last met on 14 December 2025, Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham. Across both meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Tottenham 0, with 0 drawn.

How is the model's accuracy measured?

Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.

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