Toulouse vs Le Havre Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Toulouse vs Le Havre on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Toulouse at 48.4%.
- Toulouse: 48.4%.
- Draw: 27.6%.
- Le Havre: 24.0%.
- Toulouse are 17th in the table, Le Havre 16th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Toulouse host Le Havre on 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Ligue 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Ligue 1 table, Toulouse are 17th and Le Havre 16th, level on points between them, a single place apart.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse | 48.4% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Le Havre | 24.0% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, Toulouse show 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded. Le Havre bring a record of 1-7-2 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
It is Le Havre who lead this one 3-1-1. They last met on 15 February 2026: Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse, Le Havre taking it.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Toulouse vs Le Havre analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Ligue 1 table and fixtures
- Toulouse — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Le Havre — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Toulouse or Le Havre?
The MatchSense model gives Toulouse the highest probability at 48.4%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Toulouse and Le Havre play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Ligue 1.
What happened the last time Toulouse played Le Havre?
They last met on 15 February 2026, Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse. Across 5 meetings, Toulouse have won 1, Le Havre 3, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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