Albania vs San Marino Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Albania vs San Marino on 6 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Albania at 89.7%.
- Albania: 89.7%.
- Draw: 6.6%.
- San Marino: 3.7%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Albania are 2nd in the table, San Marino 4th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Albania take on San Marino on 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the UEFA Nations League table, Albania are 2nd and San Marino 4th, 6 points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Albania | 89.7% |
| Draw | 6.6% |
| San Marino | 3.7% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Albania bring a record of 4-1-5 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. San Marino come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 0.8 scored and 2.4 conceded.
When these two have met
The two have met just once in our records. Their previous meeting was on 29 September 2026: San Marino 0-3 Albania, Albania taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Albania vs San Marino analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Albania — Profile, squad and fixtures
- San Marino — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Albania or San Marino?
The MatchSense model gives Albania the highest probability at 89.7%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Albania and San Marino play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League.
Which markets are analysed for Albania vs San Marino?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Albania played San Marino?
They last met on 29 September 2026, San Marino 0-3 Albania. In their one previous meeting, Albania have won 1, San Marino 0, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- England vs Czechia Result: 3-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Croatia vs Spain Result: 1-2 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Belarus vs Finland Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Result: 0-2 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026