FOOTBALLSerie Amatch-recap13/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Atalanta vs Cagliari Result: 1-2 — How the Model Called It, 12 September 2026
Atalanta vs Cagliari finished 1-2 on 12 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari.
- Result: Cagliari.
- The model gave this outcome a 23.2% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari in Serie A, 12 September 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Atalanta vs Cagliari these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Atalanta | 48.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% |
| Cagliari | 23.2% |
The model made Atalanta the most likely outcome at 48.3%. What happened was Cagliari, which it gave 23.2%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Atalanta vs Cagliari analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Atalanta — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Cagliari — Profile, squad and fixtures
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