FOOTBALLUEFA Nations Leaguematch-recap06/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 4 October 2026
Azerbaijan vs Lithuania finished 1-0 on 4 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania.
- Result: Azerbaijan.
- The model gave this outcome a 36.7% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Azerbaijan 1-0 Lithuania in UEFA Nations League, 4 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Azerbaijan vs Lithuania these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 36.7% |
| Draw | 32.3% |
| Lithuania | 31.0% |
The model's most likely outcome — Azerbaijan at 36.7% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Azerbaijan vs Lithuania analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Azerbaijan — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Lithuania — Profile, squad and fixtures
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- England vs Czechia Result: 3-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Croatia vs Spain Result: 1-2 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Belarus vs Finland Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Result: 0-2 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026