Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 5 October 2026
Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland finished 1-0 on 5 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland.
- Result: Bosnia & Herzegovina.
- The model gave this outcome a 27.9% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland in UEFA Nations League, 5 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 27.9% |
| Draw | 27.3% |
| Poland | 44.8% |
The model made Poland the most likely outcome at 44.8%. What happened was Bosnia & Herzegovina, which it gave 27.9%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Bosnia & Herzegovina — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Poland — Profile, squad and fixtures
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