Burnley vs Bristol City Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Burnley vs Bristol City on 5 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Burnley are 24th in the table, Bristol City 4th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Burnley host Bristol City on 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.
Burnley come into this 24th in the Championship table with 2 points; Bristol City are 4th on 10 points — 20 places apart in a 24-team competition.
Recent form
Burnley have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 0.8 scored and 2.2 conceded. Bristol City have gone 4 matches without defeat, keeping 3 clean sheets.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. They last met on 29 March 2025: Burnley 1-0 Bristol City, Burnley taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Burnley vs Bristol City analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Bristol City — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
When do Burnley and Bristol City play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Burnley played Bristol City?
They last met on 29 March 2025, Burnley 1-0 Bristol City. Across both meetings, Burnley have won 2, Bristol City 0, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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