Burnley vs Derby Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Burnley vs Derby on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Burnley at 52.0%.
- Burnley: 52.0%.
- Draw: 24.4%.
- Derby: 23.6%.
- Burnley are 24th in the table, Derby 22nd.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Burnley host Derby on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Championship table, Burnley are 24th and Derby 22nd, a point between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Burnley | 52.0% |
| Draw | 24.4% |
| Derby | 23.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Burnley have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.1 conceded. Derby come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
The two have met just twice in our records. Their previous meeting was on 8 April 2025, Derby drawing 0-0.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Burnley vs Derby analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Burnley — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Burnley or Derby?
The MatchSense model gives Burnley the highest probability at 52.0%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Burnley and Derby play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship.
What happened the last time Burnley played Derby?
They last met on 8 April 2025, Derby 0-0 Burnley. Across both meetings, Burnley have won 0, Derby 0, with 2 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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