Portsmouth vs Blackburn Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Portsmouth vs Blackburn on 19 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Portsmouth at 44.1%.
- Portsmouth: 44.1%.
- Blackburn: 29.2%.
- Draw: 26.6%.
- Portsmouth are 18th in the table, Blackburn 15th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Portsmouth welcome Blackburn on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Championship table, Portsmouth are 18th and Blackburn 15th, a point between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 44.1% |
| Blackburn | 29.2% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Portsmouth have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Blackburn show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
The head-to-head
4 previous meetings split 2-1-1 in Portsmouth's favour on the head-to-head. The most recent meeting came on 7 March 2026, Blackburn drawing 1-1.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Portsmouth vs Blackburn analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Portsmouth — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Blackburn — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Portsmouth or Blackburn?
The MatchSense model gives Portsmouth the highest probability at 44.1%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Portsmouth and Blackburn play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship.
What happened the last time Portsmouth played Blackburn?
They last met on 7 March 2026, Blackburn 1-1 Portsmouth. Across 4 meetings, Portsmouth have won 2, Blackburn 1, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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