Derby vs West Brom Prediction — Model Probabilities for 9 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Derby vs West Brom on 9 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is West Brom at 37.7%.
- West Brom: 37.7%.
- Derby: 34.5%.
- Draw: 27.8%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Derby are 21st in the table, West Brom 6th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Derby host West Brom on 9 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Championship. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Derby sit 21st in the Championship table on 4 points from 5 games, with West Brom 6th on 10 points — 15 places apart in a 24-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| West Brom | 37.7% |
| Derby | 34.5% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Derby have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, West Brom show 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats, conceding just 0.7 a game.
Previous meetings
Derby have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of 4. The most recent meeting came on 23 January 2026, Derby drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Derby vs West Brom analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
- West Brom — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Derby or West Brom?
The MatchSense model gives West Brom the highest probability at 37.7%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Derby and West Brom play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 9 September 2026, 18:45 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for Derby vs West Brom?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Derby played West Brom?
They last met on 23 January 2026, Derby 1-1 West Brom. Across 4 meetings, Derby have won 3, West Brom 0, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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