Estonia vs Iceland Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Estonia vs Iceland on 6 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Iceland at 57.0%.
- Iceland: 57.0%.
- Draw: 23.4%.
- Estonia: 19.6%.
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- Estonia are 2nd in the table, Iceland 1st.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Estonia welcome Iceland on 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
Estonia sit 2nd in the UEFA Nations League table on 5 points from 3 games, with Iceland 1st on 7 points, a single place apart.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Iceland | 57.0% |
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Estonia | 19.6% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Across their last 10, Estonia show 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Iceland show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 26 September 2026, Iceland drawing 1-1.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Estonia vs Iceland analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Estonia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Iceland — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Estonia or Iceland?
The MatchSense model gives Iceland the highest probability at 57.0%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Estonia and Iceland play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League.
Which markets are analysed for Estonia vs Iceland?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Estonia played Iceland?
They last met on 26 September 2026, Iceland 1-1 Estonia. In their one previous meeting, Estonia have won 0, Iceland 0, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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