FOOTBALLUEFA Nations Leaguematch-recap08/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Estonia vs Iceland Result: 0-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
Estonia vs Iceland finished 0-0 on 6 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Estonia 0-0 Iceland.
- Result: A draw.
- The model gave this outcome a 23.7% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Estonia 0-0 Iceland in UEFA Nations League, 6 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Estonia vs Iceland these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Estonia | 19.6% |
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Iceland | 56.7% |
The model made Iceland the most likely outcome at 56.7%. What happened was a draw, which it gave 23.7%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Estonia vs Iceland analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Estonia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Iceland — Profile, squad and fixtures
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