Everton vs Ipswich Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Everton vs Ipswich on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Everton at 43.8%.
- Everton: 43.8%.
- Draw: 29.4%.
- Ipswich: 26.8%.
- Everton are 9th in the table, Ipswich 10th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Everton welcome Ipswich on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Premier League table, Everton are 9th and Ipswich 10th, level on points between them, a single place apart.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Everton | 43.8% |
| Draw | 29.4% |
| Ipswich | 26.8% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Everton are unbeaten in 4, keeping 2 clean sheets. Ipswich bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
When these two have met
The two have met just twice in our records. The most recent meeting came on 3 May 2025, Everton drawing 2-2.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Everton vs Ipswich analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Everton — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Ipswich — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Everton or Ipswich?
The MatchSense model gives Everton the highest probability at 43.8%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Everton and Ipswich play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League.
What happened the last time Everton played Ipswich?
They last met on 3 May 2025, Everton 2-2 Ipswich. Across both meetings, Everton have won 1, Ipswich 0, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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