Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction — Model Probabilities for 19 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Newcastle vs Hull City on 19 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Newcastle at 46.8%.
- Newcastle: 46.8%.
- Draw: 27.8%.
- Hull City: 25.4%.
- Newcastle are 12th in the table, Hull City 4th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Newcastle welcome Hull City on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Newcastle sit 12th in the Premier League table on 5 points from 4 games, with Hull City 4th on 8 points — 8 places apart in a 20-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Newcastle | 46.8% |
| Draw | 27.8% |
| Hull City | 25.4% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Newcastle bring a record of 3-3-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded. Hull City stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, keeping 4 clean sheets.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Newcastle vs Hull City analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Premier League table and fixtures
- Newcastle — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Hull City — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Newcastle or Hull City?
The MatchSense model gives Newcastle the highest probability at 46.8%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Newcastle and Hull City play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Premier League.
What form are Newcastle and Hull City in?
Across their last 10, Newcastle show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 1.6 conceded. Hull City stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, keeping 4 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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