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FOOTBALLPrimera Amatch-recap23/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares Result: 2-1 — How the Model Called It, 22 September 2026

Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares finished 2-1 on 22 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.

Key takeaways

  • Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Jaguares.
  • Result: Independiente Medellin.
  • The model gave this outcome a 69.6% chance before kick-off.

Final score

Independiente Medellin 2-1 Jaguares in Primera A, 22 September 2026.

What the model expected

Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Independiente Medellin vs Jaguares these chances:

OutcomeModel probability
Independiente Medellin69.6%
Draw18.2%
Jaguares12.2%

The model's most likely outcome — Independiente Medellin at 69.6% — is the one that happened.

One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.

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