Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia on 5 November 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Levski Sofia at 41.3%.
- Levski Sofia: 41.3%.
- Draw: 34.5%.
- Jagiellonia: 24.3%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Levski Sofia are 27th in the table, Jagiellonia 21st.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Levski Sofia welcome Jagiellonia on 5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the UEFA Europa League table, Levski Sofia are 27th and Jagiellonia 21st, level on points between them.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Levski Sofia | 41.3% |
| Draw | 34.5% |
| Jagiellonia | 24.3% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Levski Sofia bring a record of 5-3-2 from their last 10, keeping 5 clean sheets. Jagiellonia come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Levski Sofia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Jagiellonia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Levski Sofia or Jagiellonia?
The MatchSense model gives Levski Sofia the highest probability at 41.3%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 5 November 2026, 17:45 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia in?
Across their last 10, Levski Sofia show 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets. Jagiellonia come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.0 conceded. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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