Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction — Model Probabilities for 20 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire on 20 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Nashville SC at 47.1%.
- Nashville SC: 47.1%.
- Chicago Fire: 26.6%.
- Draw: 26.3%.
- Nashville SC are 1st in the table, Chicago Fire 5th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Nashville SC take on Chicago Fire on 20 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Major League Soccer table, Nashville SC are 1st and Chicago Fire 5th, 15 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 47.1% |
| Chicago Fire | 26.6% |
| Draw | 26.3% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Nashville SC have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Chicago Fire have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded.
When these two have met
3 previous meetings split 2-0-1 in Nashville SC's favour on the head-to-head. The most recent meeting came on 5 April 2026: Chicago Fire 1-0 Nashville SC, Chicago Fire taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Chicago Fire — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Nashville SC or Chicago Fire?
The MatchSense model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 47.1%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Nashville SC and Chicago Fire play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 20 September 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Nashville SC played Chicago Fire?
They last met on 5 April 2026, Chicago Fire 1-0 Nashville SC. Across 3 meetings, Nashville SC have won 2, Chicago Fire 1, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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