QPR vs Derby Prediction — Model Probabilities for 14 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for QPR vs Derby on 14 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is QPR at 51.4%.
- QPR: 51.4%.
- Draw: 25.5%.
- Derby: 23.1%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- QPR are 8th in the table, Derby 23rd.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
QPR host Derby on 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in Championship. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
QPR sit 8th in the Championship table on 14 points from 9 games, with Derby 23rd on 6 points — 15 places apart in a 24-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| QPR | 51.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Derby | 23.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
QPR stretch an unbeaten run of 4 into this one, keeping 2 clean sheets. Derby have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 1.7 conceded.
The head-to-head
It is Derby who lead this one 3-0-1. The most recent meeting came on 25 April 2026: QPR 2-3 Derby, Derby taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full QPR vs Derby analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- QPR — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Derby — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, QPR or Derby?
The MatchSense model gives QPR the highest probability at 51.4%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do QPR and Derby play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 14 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for QPR vs Derby?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time QPR played Derby?
They last met on 25 April 2026, QPR 2-3 Derby. Across 4 meetings, QPR have won 1, Derby 3, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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