QPR vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for QPR vs Middlesbrough on 5 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- 1 further market for this fixture is priced on the analysis page.
- QPR are 3rd in the table, Middlesbrough 2nd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
QPR take on Middlesbrough on 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.
In the Championship table, QPR are 3rd and Middlesbrough 2nd, level on points between them, a single place apart.
Recent form
Across their last 10, QPR show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets. Middlesbrough have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.
The head-to-head
Middlesbrough have dominated the meetings, taking 4 of 4. The most recent meeting came on 8 March 2026: QPR 0-4 Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices one further market for this fixture — with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. That sits on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full QPR vs Middlesbrough analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Championship table and fixtures
- QPR — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Middlesbrough — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
When do QPR and Middlesbrough play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC in Championship.
Which markets are analysed for QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 1 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time QPR played Middlesbrough?
They last met on 8 March 2026, QPR 0-4 Middlesbrough. Across 4 meetings, QPR have won 0, Middlesbrough 4, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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