Scotland vs Slovenia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Scotland vs Slovenia on 6 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Scotland at 48.2%.
- Scotland: 48.2%.
- Draw: 28.2%.
- Slovenia: 23.6%.
- Scotland are 3rd in the table, Slovenia 2nd.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Scotland host Slovenia on 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the UEFA Nations League table, Scotland are 3rd and Slovenia 2nd, level on points between them, a single place apart.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Scotland | 48.2% |
| Draw | 28.2% |
| Slovenia | 23.6% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, Scotland show 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets. Slovenia bring a record of 3-4-3 from their last 10, keeping 6 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
4 previous meetings split 2-2-0 in Scotland's favour on the head-to-head. The most recent meeting came on 26 September 2026, Slovenia drawing 0-0.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Scotland vs Slovenia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Scotland — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Slovenia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Scotland or Slovenia?
The MatchSense model gives Scotland the highest probability at 48.2%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Scotland and Slovenia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League.
What happened the last time Scotland played Slovenia?
They last met on 26 September 2026, Slovenia 0-0 Scotland. Across 4 meetings, Scotland have won 2, Slovenia 0, with 2 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
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