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FOOTBALLMajor League Soccermatch-preview08/10/20262 min readMatchSense Model

Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers on 11 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is Portland Timbers at 40.6%.
  • Portland Timbers: 40.6%.
  • Sporting Kansas City: 36.1%.
  • Draw: 23.3%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • Sporting Kansas City are 15th in the table, Portland Timbers 10th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

Sporting Kansas City take on Portland Timbers on 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.

Sporting Kansas City sit 15th in the Major League Soccer table on 21 points from 27 games, with Portland Timbers 10th on 32 points.

What the model makes of it

OutcomeModel probability
Portland Timbers40.6%
Sporting Kansas City36.1%
Draw23.3%

Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.

How both sides arrive

Sporting Kansas City have lost 7 of their last 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.1 conceded. Across their last 10, Portland Timbers show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded.

When these two have met

Portland Timbers have dominated the meetings, taking 4 of 5. The most recent meeting came on 10 May 2026: Portland Timbers 6-0 Sporting Kansas City, Portland Timbers taking it.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, Sporting Kansas City or Portland Timbers?

The MatchSense model gives Portland Timbers the highest probability at 40.6%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do Sporting Kansas City and Portland Timbers play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.

Which markets are analysed for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What happened the last time Sporting Kansas City played Portland Timbers?

They last met on 10 May 2026, Portland Timbers 6-0 Sporting Kansas City. Across 5 meetings, Sporting Kansas City have won 0, Portland Timbers 4, with 1 drawn.

How accurate are these probabilities?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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