Sturm Graz vs Celje Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Sturm Graz vs Celje on 5 November 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Sturm Graz at 65.8%.
- Sturm Graz: 65.8%.
- Draw: 18.1%.
- Celje: 16.0%.
- Sturm Graz are 20th in the table, Celje 29th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Sturm Graz host Celje on 5 November 2026, 20:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the UEFA Europa League table, Sturm Graz are 20th and Celje 29th, a point between them — 9 places apart in a 36-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 65.8% |
| Draw | 18.1% |
| Celje | 16.0% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
Recent form
Across their last 10, Sturm Graz show 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats, keeping 3 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Celje show 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Sturm Graz vs Celje analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Sturm Graz — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Celje — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Sturm Graz or Celje?
The MatchSense model gives Sturm Graz the highest probability at 65.8%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Sturm Graz and Celje play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 5 November 2026, 20:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
What form are Sturm Graz and Celje in?
Sturm Graz have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Celje bring a record of 2-5-3 from their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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