Sturm Graz vs Rennes Prediction — Model Probabilities for 16 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Sturm Graz vs Rennes on 16 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Rennes at 56.1%.
- Rennes: 56.1%.
- Sturm Graz: 21.8%.
- Draw: 21.0%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Sturm Graz come in on 2-1-7 from their last 10.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Sturm Graz take on Rennes on 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Rennes | 56.1% |
| Sturm Graz | 21.8% |
| Draw | 21.0% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
How both sides arrive
Sturm Graz come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Rennes are unbeaten in 4, scoring 2.0 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Sturm Graz vs Rennes analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Europa League table and fixtures
- Sturm Graz — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Rennes — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Sturm Graz or Rennes?
The MatchSense model gives Rennes the highest probability at 56.1%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Sturm Graz and Rennes play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 16 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in UEFA Europa League.
Which markets are analysed for Sturm Graz vs Rennes?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rennes in?
Sturm Graz come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Rennes are unbeaten in 4, scoring 2.0 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How accurate are these probabilities?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
- Benfica vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
- AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 November 2026