Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia on 6 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Switzerland at 83.9%.
- Switzerland: 83.9%.
- Draw: 10.8%.
- FYR Macedonia: 5.3%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Switzerland come in on 6-3-1 from their last 10.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Switzerland host FYR Macedonia on 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Switzerland | 83.9% |
| Draw | 10.8% |
| FYR Macedonia | 5.3% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Switzerland come in having won 3 in a row, scoring 2.0 a game. Across their last 10, FYR Macedonia show 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, keeping 5 clean sheets.
When these two have met
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 26 September 2026: FYR Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland, Switzerland taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Switzerland — Profile, squad and fixtures
- FYR Macedonia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Switzerland or FYR Macedonia?
The MatchSense model gives Switzerland the highest probability at 83.9%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Switzerland and FYR Macedonia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC in UEFA Nations League.
Which markets are analysed for Switzerland vs FYR Macedonia?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Switzerland played FYR Macedonia?
They last met on 26 September 2026, FYR Macedonia 0-3 Switzerland. In their one previous meeting, Switzerland have won 1, FYR Macedonia 0, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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