Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Toulouse at 61.1%.
- Toulouse: 61.1%.
- Draw: 21.2%.
- Estac Troyes: 17.8%.
- Toulouse are 11th in the table, Estac Troyes 17th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Toulouse host Estac Troyes on 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC in Ligue 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Ligue 1 table, Toulouse are 11th and Estac Troyes 17th, 5 points between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Toulouse | 61.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% |
| Estac Troyes | 17.8% |
A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.
What each side brings into this
Toulouse are unbeaten in 4, keeping 2 clean sheets. Estac Troyes come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Toulouse vs Estac Troyes analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Ligue 1 table and fixtures
- Toulouse — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Estac Troyes — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Toulouse or Estac Troyes?
The MatchSense model gives Toulouse the highest probability at 61.1%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Toulouse and Estac Troyes play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 15:15 UTC in Ligue 1.
What form are Toulouse and Estac Troyes in?
Toulouse stretch an unbeaten run of 4 into this one, keeping 2 clean sheets. Estac Troyes come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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