FOOTBALLUEFA Nations Leaguematch-recap06/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Ukraine vs Hungary Result: 1-2 — How the Model Called It, 5 October 2026
Ukraine vs Hungary finished 1-2 on 5 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Ukraine 1-2 Hungary.
- Result: Hungary.
- The model gave this outcome a 31.2% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Ukraine 1-2 Hungary in UEFA Nations League, 5 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Ukraine vs Hungary these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Ukraine | 38.6% |
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Hungary | 31.2% |
The model made Ukraine the most likely outcome at 38.6%. What happened was Hungary, which it gave 31.2%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Ukraine vs Hungary analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Ukraine — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Hungary — Profile, squad and fixtures
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- England vs Czechia Result: 3-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Croatia vs Spain Result: 1-2 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Belarus vs Finland Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026
- Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Result: 0-2 — How the Model Called It, 6 October 2026