FOOTBALLSerie Amatch-recap12/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Venezia vs Fiorentina Result: 2-4 — How the Model Called It, 11 September 2026
Venezia vs Fiorentina finished 2-4 on 11 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina.
- Result: Fiorentina.
- The model gave this outcome a 33.7% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Venezia 2-4 Fiorentina in Serie A, 11 September 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Venezia vs Fiorentina these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Venezia | 39.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% |
| Fiorentina | 33.7% |
The model made Venezia the most likely outcome at 39.3%. What happened was Fiorentina, which it gave 33.7%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Venezia vs Fiorentina analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Serie A table and fixtures
- Venezia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Fiorentina — Profile, squad and fixtures
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