FOOTBALLUEFA Nations Leaguematch-recap06/10/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Wales vs Denmark Result: 0-1 — How the Model Called It, 4 October 2026
Wales vs Denmark finished 0-1 on 4 October 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Wales 0-1 Denmark.
- Result: Denmark.
- The model gave this outcome a 44.7% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Wales 0-1 Denmark in UEFA Nations League, 4 October 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Wales vs Denmark these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Wales | 26.1% |
| Draw | 29.3% |
| Denmark | 44.7% |
The model's most likely outcome — Denmark at 44.7% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Wales vs Denmark analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Nations League table and fixtures
- Wales — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Denmark — Profile, squad and fixtures
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