Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities for 5 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Willem II vs Excelsior on 5 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Willem II are 16th in the table, Excelsior 5th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Willem II host Excelsior on 5 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Eredivisie. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.
In the Eredivisie table, Willem II are 16th and Excelsior 5th, 8 points between them — 11 places apart in an 18-team competition.
Recent form
Willem II come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. Excelsior have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.2 a game.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Willem II vs Excelsior analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Willem II — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Excelsior — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
When do Willem II and Excelsior play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 5 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Eredivisie.
Which markets are analysed for Willem II vs Excelsior?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What form are Willem II and Excelsior in?
Willem II come in with 6 defeats in 10, averaging 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. Across their last 10, Excelsior show 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, scoring 2.2 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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