Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen on 12 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is NEC Nijmegen at 56.9%.
- NEC Nijmegen: 56.9%.
- Cambuur: 21.9%.
- Draw: 21.2%.
- Cambuur are 18th in the table, NEC Nijmegen 10th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Cambuur welcome NEC Nijmegen on 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Eredivisie. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Cambuur sit 18th in the Eredivisie table on 1 point from 5 games, with NEC Nijmegen 10th on 6 points — 8 places apart in an 18-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 56.9% |
| Cambuur | 21.9% |
| Draw | 21.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Cambuur come in with 7 defeats in 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Across their last 10, NEC Nijmegen show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 1.4 scored and 1.7 conceded.
The head-to-head
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 11 February 2023, NEC Nijmegen drawing 0-0.
How are these numbers produced?
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Eredivisie table and fixtures
- Cambuur — Profile, squad and fixtures
- NEC Nijmegen — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Cambuur or NEC Nijmegen?
The MatchSense model gives NEC Nijmegen the highest probability at 56.9%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC in Eredivisie.
What happened the last time Cambuur played NEC Nijmegen?
They last met on 11 February 2023, NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur. In their one previous meeting, Cambuur have won 0, NEC Nijmegen 0, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
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