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FOOTBALLBundesligamatch-preview08/09/20262 min readMatchSense Model

1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026

MatchSense model probabilities for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart on 12 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.

Key takeaways

  • The model's highest probability outcome is 1899 Hoffenheim at 41.4%.
  • 1899 Hoffenheim: 41.4%.
  • VfB Stuttgart: 35.1%.
  • Draw: 23.5%.
  • 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
  • 1899 Hoffenheim are 16th in the table, VfB Stuttgart 10th.
  • Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.

1899 Hoffenheim host VfB Stuttgart on 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.

1899 Hoffenheim come into this 16th in the Bundesliga table with 0 points; VfB Stuttgart are 10th on 3 points.

Who does the model favour?

OutcomeModel probability
1899 Hoffenheim41.4%
VfB Stuttgart35.1%
Draw23.5%

A probability is a rate over many similar matches: 55% means about 55 in 100, and says nothing certain about this one.

Recent form

Across their last 10, 1899 Hoffenheim show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, averaging 1.5 scored and 2.4 conceded. VfB Stuttgart bring a record of 4-3-3 from their last 10, scoring 2.3 a game.

Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.

Behind the estimate

The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.

The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.

Go deeper

This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.

Frequently asked questions

Who is more likely to win, 1899 Hoffenheim or VfB Stuttgart?

The MatchSense model gives 1899 Hoffenheim the highest probability at 41.4%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.

When do 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart play?

Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 13:30 UTC in Bundesliga.

Which markets are analysed for 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart?

Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.

What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in?

1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, averaging 1.5 scored and 2.4 conceded. Across their last 10, VfB Stuttgart show 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats, scoring 2.3 a game. Recent form is one of the inputs behind the probabilities above.

How accurate are these probabilities?

They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.

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