Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Borussia Dortmund at 66.2%.
- Borussia Dortmund: 66.2%.
- Draw: 18.3%.
- Eintracht Frankfurt: 15.5%.
- Borussia Dortmund are 2nd in the table, Eintracht Frankfurt 11th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Borussia Dortmund take on Eintracht Frankfurt on 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC in Bundesliga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the Bundesliga table, Borussia Dortmund are 2nd and Eintracht Frankfurt 11th, 6 points between them — 9 places apart in an 18-team competition.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 66.2% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 15.5% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
How both sides arrive
Borussia Dortmund bring a record of 7-2-1 from their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game. Across their last 10, Eintracht Frankfurt show 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, scoring 2.6 a game.
Previous meetings
Across 4 meetings it is close: 1 to Borussia Dortmund, 1 to Eintracht Frankfurt, 2 drawn. They last met on 8 May 2026: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt, Borussia Dortmund taking it.
Where the numbers come from
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Bundesliga table and fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Borussia Dortmund or Eintracht Frankfurt?
The MatchSense model gives Borussia Dortmund the highest probability at 66.2%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC in Bundesliga.
What happened the last time Borussia Dortmund played Eintracht Frankfurt?
They last met on 8 May 2026, Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Eintracht Frankfurt. Across 4 meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 1, with 2 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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