Alaves vs Valencia Prediction — Model Probabilities for 15 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Alaves vs Valencia on 15 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Alaves at 49.2%.
- Alaves: 49.2%.
- Draw: 27.6%.
- Valencia: 23.2%.
- 3 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Alaves are 4th in the table, Valencia 20th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Alaves welcome Valencia on 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC in La Liga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the La Liga table, Alaves are 4th and Valencia 20th, 9 points between them — 16 places apart in a 20-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Alaves | 49.2% |
| Draw | 27.6% |
| Valencia | 23.2% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Alaves bring a record of 5-2-3 from their last 10, keeping 4 clean sheets. Across their last 10, Valencia show 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, keeping 2 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
5 previous meetings split 2-2-1 in Alaves's favour on the head-to-head. The most recent meeting came on 8 March 2026: Valencia 3-2 Alaves, Valencia taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 3 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Alaves vs Valencia analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Alaves — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Valencia — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Alaves or Valencia?
The MatchSense model gives Alaves the highest probability at 49.2%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Alaves and Valencia play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 15 September 2026, 18:00 UTC in La Liga.
Which markets are analysed for Alaves vs Valencia?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 3 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Alaves played Valencia?
They last met on 8 March 2026, Valencia 3-2 Alaves. Across 5 meetings, Alaves have won 2, Valencia 1, with 2 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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