Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Valencia vs Villarreal on 24 October 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Villarreal at 42.5%.
- Villarreal: 42.5%.
- Valencia: 30.8%.
- Draw: 26.7%.
- Valencia are 19th in the table, Villarreal 12th.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Valencia host Villarreal on 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC in La Liga. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Valencia sit 19th in the La Liga table on 6 points from 9 games, with Villarreal 12th on 9 points.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | 42.5% |
| Valencia | 30.8% |
| Draw | 26.7% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Valencia bring a record of 2-3-5 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Villarreal have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
When these two have met
4 previous meetings split 0-2-2 in Valencia's favour on the head-to-head. They last met on 22 February 2026: Villarreal 2-1 Valencia, Villarreal taking it.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Valencia vs Villarreal analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Valencia — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Villarreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Valencia or Villarreal?
The MatchSense model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 42.5%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Valencia and Villarreal play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 16:30 UTC in La Liga.
What happened the last time Valencia played Villarreal?
They last met on 22 February 2026, Villarreal 2-1 Valencia. Across 4 meetings, Valencia have won 0, Villarreal 2, with 2 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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