Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities for 28 August 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Alaves vs Villarreal on 28 August 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Villarreal at 43.5%.
- Villarreal: 43.5%.
- Alaves: 30.1%.
- Draw: 26.4%.
- Alaves are 1st in the table, Villarreal 12th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Alaves welcome Villarreal on 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC in La Liga. This page carries the MatchSense model's probabilities for the fixture — not a tip, but an estimate of how likely each outcome is.
In the La Liga table, Alaves are 1st and Villarreal 12th, 5 points between them — 11 places apart in a 20-team competition.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Villarreal | 43.5% |
| Alaves | 30.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Alaves have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets. Villarreal have gone 4 matches without defeat, scoring 2.3 a game.
When these two have met
Across 4 meetings it is close: 1 to Alaves, 2 to Villarreal, 1 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 13 March 2026, Alaves drawing 1-1.
Where the numbers come from
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Alaves vs Villarreal analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Alaves — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Villarreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Alaves or Villarreal?
The MatchSense model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 43.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Alaves and Villarreal play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 28 August 2026, 19:30 UTC in La Liga.
What happened the last time Alaves played Villarreal?
They last met on 13 March 2026, Alaves 1-1 Villarreal. Across 4 meetings, Alaves have won 1, Villarreal 2, with 1 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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