FOOTBALLLa Ligamatch-recap29/08/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Alaves vs Villarreal Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 28 August 2026
Alaves vs Villarreal finished 1-0 on 28 August 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
- Result: Alaves.
- The model gave this outcome a 30.1% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Alaves 1-0 Villarreal in La Liga, 28 August 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Alaves vs Villarreal these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Alaves | 30.1% |
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Villarreal | 43.5% |
The model made Villarreal the most likely outcome at 43.5%. What happened was Alaves, which it gave 30.1%.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Alaves vs Villarreal analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- La Liga table and fixtures
- Alaves — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Villarreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
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