Arema FC vs Persik Kediri Prediction — Model Probabilities for 18 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Arema FC vs Persik Kediri on 18 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Arema FC at 69.5%.
- Arema FC: 69.5%.
- Draw: 16.3%.
- Persik Kediri: 14.3%.
- 2 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Arema FC are 5th in the table, Persik Kediri 9th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
Arema FC welcome Persik Kediri on 18 September 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
In the Liga 1 table, Arema FC are 5th and Persik Kediri 9th, a point between them.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Arema FC | 69.5% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
| Persik Kediri | 14.3% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
What each side brings into this
Arema FC are unbeaten in 5, scoring 2.3 a game. Persik Kediri come in with 6 defeats in 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
Previous meetings
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to Arema FC, 2 to Persik Kediri, 0 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 3 May 2026: Persik Kediri 3-2 Arema FC, Persik Kediri taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 2 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Arema FC vs Persik Kediri analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Liga 1 table and fixtures
- Arema FC — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Persik Kediri — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Arema FC or Persik Kediri?
The MatchSense model gives Arema FC the highest probability at 69.5%. That is a clear lead, though the remainder still sits with the other outcomes.
When do Arema FC and Persik Kediri play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 18 September 2026, 08:30 UTC in Liga 1.
Which markets are analysed for Arema FC vs Persik Kediri?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 2 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Arema FC played Persik Kediri?
They last met on 3 May 2026, Persik Kediri 3-2 Arema FC. Across 3 meetings, Arema FC have won 1, Persik Kediri 2, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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