FOOTBALLUEFA Champions League Womenmatch-recap23/09/20261 min readMatchSense Model
Arsenal W vs Køge W Result: 1-0 — How the Model Called It, 22 September 2026
Arsenal W vs Køge W finished 1-0 on 22 September 2026. Here is that result set against the model's pre-match probabilities.
Key takeaways
- Final score: Arsenal W 1-0 Køge W.
- Result: Arsenal W.
- The model gave this outcome a 84.1% chance before kick-off.
Final score
Arsenal W 1-0 Køge W in UEFA Champions League Women, 22 September 2026.
What the model expected
Before kick-off, the MatchSense model gave Arsenal W vs Køge W these chances:
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Arsenal W | 84.1% |
| Draw | 9.1% |
| Køge W | 6.8% |
The model's most likely outcome — Arsenal W at 84.1% — is the one that happened.
One match does not test a model. An outcome given 30% is supposed to happen about three times in ten, so these numbers only mean something read across hundreds of fixtures.
Go deeper
- Full Arsenal W vs Køge W analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- UEFA Champions League Women table and fixtures
- Arsenal W — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Køge W — Profile, squad and fixtures
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