Austin vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 11 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Austin vs Nashville SC on 11 October 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Nashville SC at 48.4%.
- Nashville SC: 48.4%.
- Austin: 26.5%.
- Draw: 25.1%.
- Austin come in on 3-5-2 from their last 10.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Austin host Nashville SC on 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 48.4% |
| Austin | 26.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
How both sides arrive
Austin stretch an unbeaten run of 6 into this one, averaging 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded. Nashville SC have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.1 a game.
Previous meetings
The two have met just once in our records. The most recent meeting came on 25 August 2024: Nashville SC 0-2 Austin, Austin taking it.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Austin vs Nashville SC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Austin — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Austin or Nashville SC?
The MatchSense model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 48.4%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do Austin and Nashville SC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 11 October 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Austin played Nashville SC?
They last met on 25 August 2024, Nashville SC 0-2 Austin. In their one previous meeting, Austin have won 1, Nashville SC 0, with 0 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
The model is scored against past results, so a 60% probability has historically landed near 60% of the time. A single match remains uncertain.
Get the weekly briefing
Next week's fixtures, how last week's published picks actually settled, and the newest analysis. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
We never share your address, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Related reading
- How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
- New York Red Bulls vs Inter Miami Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- CF Montreal vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
- Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal Result: 1-1 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026
- Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids Result: 0-0 — How the Model Called It, 18 October 2026