CF Montreal vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 24 October 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for CF Montreal vs Nashville SC on 24 October 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Nashville SC at 57.5%.
- Nashville SC: 57.5%.
- Draw: 23.8%.
- CF Montreal: 18.7%.
- CF Montreal are 15th in the table, Nashville SC 1st.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
CF Montreal host Nashville SC on 24 October 2026, 17:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
In the Major League Soccer table, CF Montreal are 15th and Nashville SC 1st, 42 points between them — 14 places apart in a 15-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 57.5% |
| Draw | 23.8% |
| CF Montreal | 18.7% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
CF Montreal come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 0.9 scored and 2.3 conceded. Nashville SC are unbeaten in 6, scoring 2.4 a game.
When these two have met
It is Nashville SC who lead this one 3-2-0. They last met on 23 July 2026: Nashville SC 1-0 CF Montreal, Nashville SC taking it.
How are these numbers produced?
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full CF Montreal vs Nashville SC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- CF Montreal — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, CF Montreal or Nashville SC?
The MatchSense model gives Nashville SC the highest probability at 57.5%. That is a real but not decisive edge over the other results.
When do CF Montreal and Nashville SC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 24 October 2026, 17:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time CF Montreal played Nashville SC?
They last met on 23 July 2026, Nashville SC 1-0 CF Montreal. Across 5 meetings, CF Montreal have won 0, Nashville SC 3, with 2 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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