Austin vs San Diego Prediction — Model Probabilities for 27 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Austin vs San Diego on 27 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Austin at 37.1%.
- Austin: 37.1%.
- San Diego: 34.6%.
- Draw: 28.3%.
- Austin are 11th in the table, San Diego 10th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Austin host San Diego on 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Austin come into this 11th in the Major League Soccer table with 30 points; San Diego are 10th on 31 points, a single place apart.
What the model makes of it
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Austin | 37.1% |
| San Diego | 34.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
Austin have gone 7 matches without defeat, averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. San Diego bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, keeping 3 clean sheets.
The head-to-head
3 previous meetings split 1-0-2 in Austin's favour on the head-to-head. Their previous meeting was on 14 May 2026: San Diego 5-0 Austin, San Diego taking it.
Behind the estimate
It starts from a Dixon-Coles style goal model, adds Elo ratings, recent results, home advantage and squad availability. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Austin vs San Diego analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Austin — Profile, squad and fixtures
- San Diego — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Austin or San Diego?
The MatchSense model gives Austin the highest probability at 37.1%. Even as the leading call it holds under half the probability, which makes this an open fixture.
When do Austin and San Diego play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 27 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Austin played San Diego?
They last met on 14 May 2026, San Diego 5-0 Austin. Across 3 meetings, Austin have won 1, San Diego 2, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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