Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami Prediction — Model Probabilities for 27 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami on 27 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Inter Miami at 38.5%.
- Inter Miami: 38.5%.
- Columbus Crew: 34.8%.
- Draw: 26.6%.
- Columbus Crew are 13th in the table, Inter Miami 3rd.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Columbus Crew welcome Inter Miami on 27 September 2026, 23:00 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
Columbus Crew sit 13th in the Major League Soccer table on 26 points from 26 games, with Inter Miami 3rd on 46 points — 10 places apart in a 15-team competition.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 38.5% |
| Columbus Crew | 34.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
These are frequencies, not forecasts — 55% describes how often similar fixtures end that way, not what will happen here.
Recent form
Columbus Crew have lost 6 of their last 10, keeping 2 clean sheets. Inter Miami are unbeaten in 5, scoring 2.1 a game.
When these two have met
Across 3 meetings it is close: 0 to Columbus Crew, 2 to Inter Miami, 1 drawn. The most recent meeting came on 1 August 2026, Inter Miami drawing 2-2.
Behind the estimate
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Columbus Crew — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Inter Miami — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Columbus Crew or Inter Miami?
The MatchSense model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 38.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do Columbus Crew and Inter Miami play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 27 September 2026, 23:00 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Columbus Crew played Inter Miami?
They last met on 1 August 2026, Inter Miami 2-2 Columbus Crew. Across 3 meetings, Columbus Crew have won 0, Inter Miami 2, with 1 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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