San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction — Model Probabilities for 27 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers on 27 September 2026. Numbers refresh as lineups and market prices move.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is San Jose Earthquakes at 42.5%.
- San Jose Earthquakes: 42.5%.
- Portland Timbers: 30.6%.
- Draw: 26.9%.
- San Jose Earthquakes are 5th in the table, Portland Timbers 9th.
- These numbers move again once the lineups are confirmed.
San Jose Earthquakes welcome Portland Timbers on 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. What follows is the MatchSense model's read on this fixture, with the recent record of both sides for context.
San Jose Earthquakes sit 5th in the Major League Soccer table on 42 points from 26 games, with Portland Timbers 9th on 32 points.
Who does the model favour?
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 42.5% |
| Portland Timbers | 30.6% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes stretch an unbeaten run of 5 into this one, keeping 2 clean sheets. Portland Timbers bring a record of 4-2-4 from their last 10, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Previous meetings
Across 3 meetings it is close: 2 to San Jose Earthquakes, 0 to Portland Timbers, 1 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 24 May 2026: Portland Timbers 1-3 San Jose Earthquakes, San Jose Earthquakes taking it.
Where the numbers come from
The model blends both teams' attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, recent form, home advantage and player availability. An early version publishes days before kickoff and is revised once confirmed lineups land.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Portland Timbers — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, San Jose Earthquakes or Portland Timbers?
The MatchSense model gives San Jose Earthquakes the highest probability at 42.5%. No outcome takes half the probability here, so the model reads it as genuinely open.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time San Jose Earthquakes played Portland Timbers?
They last met on 24 May 2026, Portland Timbers 1-3 San Jose Earthquakes. Across 3 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes have won 2, Portland Timbers 0, with 1 drawn.
How reliable is this estimate?
They are calibrated against historical fixtures: across a set of 60% calls, close to 60% should actually happen. No model can make a single match certain.
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