Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — Model Probabilities for 6 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes on 6 September 2026. Form, the table and the head-to-head behind the numbers.
Key takeaways
- 4 further markets for this fixture are priced on the analysis page.
- Austin are 14th in the table, San Jose Earthquakes 6th.
- Probabilities are refreshed once confirmed lineups are published.
Austin welcome San Jose Earthquakes on 6 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. The MatchSense model is analysing this fixture; its probabilities appear here once published.
Austin come into this 14th in the Major League Soccer table with 25 points; San Jose Earthquakes are 6th on 35 points — 8 places apart in a 15-team competition.
Recent form
Austin have lost 6 of their last 10, averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. San Jose Earthquakes come in with 7 defeats in 10, averaging 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
When these two have met
Across 3 meetings it is close: 1 to Austin, 2 to San Jose Earthquakes, 0 drawn. Their previous meeting was on 23 April 2026: San Jose Earthquakes 5-1 Austin, San Jose Earthquakes taking it.
Beyond the match result, the model also prices 4 further markets for this fixture — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market, and a confidence band. Those sit on the match analysis page.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. The numbers are revised when confirmed lineups arrive, because one missing starter can move them several points.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Austin — Profile, squad and fixtures
- San Jose Earthquakes — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
When do Austin and San Jose Earthquakes play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 6 September 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
Which markets are analysed for Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Alongside the match result shown on this page, the model prices 4 further markets — total goals, both sides scoring and goal-margin lines among them — each with a modelled price, the difference against the market and a confidence band, on the match analysis page.
What happened the last time Austin played San Jose Earthquakes?
They last met on 23 April 2026, San Jose Earthquakes 5-1 Austin. Across 3 meetings, Austin have won 1, San Jose Earthquakes 2, with 0 drawn.
How is the model's accuracy measured?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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