Inter Miami vs Nashville SC Prediction — Model Probabilities for 12 September 2026
MatchSense model probabilities for Inter Miami vs Nashville SC on 12 September 2026. With recent form and previous meetings for context.
Key takeaways
- The model's highest probability outcome is Inter Miami at 47.0%.
- Inter Miami: 47.0%.
- Nashville SC: 28.8%.
- Draw: 24.2%.
- Inter Miami are 2nd in the table, Nashville SC 1st.
- The estimate is revised when confirmed team sheets arrive.
Inter Miami host Nashville SC on 12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. Below are the MatchSense model's probabilities for this fixture, alongside the form and head-to-head context behind them.
Inter Miami sit 2nd in the Major League Soccer table on 43 points from 23 games, with Nashville SC 1st on 53 points, a single place apart.
The model's read
| Outcome | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 47.0% |
| Nashville SC | 28.8% |
| Draw | 24.2% |
Read a probability as a long-run frequency: a 55% call means fixtures that look like this one finish that way roughly 55 times in 100.
What each side brings into this
Inter Miami have won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, scoring 2.7 a game. Nashville SC have gone 6 matches without defeat, conceding just 0.7 a game.
Previous meetings
Across 6 meetings it is close: 4 to Inter Miami, 2 to Nashville SC, 0 drawn. They last met on 16 August 2026: Nashville SC 4-1 Inter Miami, Nashville SC taking it.
Behind the estimate
Attacking and defensive strength, Elo ratings, the run of recent results, home advantage and who is fit all feed the estimate. A first estimate goes out well before kickoff; a second follows when the team sheets are confirmed.
The full method is in How the MatchSense Prediction Model Works and How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities.
Go deeper
- Full Inter Miami vs Nashville SC analysis — lineups, statistics, head-to-head and every market the model prices.
- Major League Soccer table and fixtures
- Inter Miami — Profile, squad and fixtures
- Nashville SC — Profile, squad and fixtures
This page is analytical and educational. Probabilities are not guarantees of any result.
Frequently asked questions
Who is more likely to win, Inter Miami or Nashville SC?
The MatchSense model gives Inter Miami the highest probability at 47.0%. It leads without settling the fixture — the rest is split across the other outcomes.
When do Inter Miami and Nashville SC play?
Kick-off is scheduled for 12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.
What happened the last time Inter Miami played Nashville SC?
They last met on 16 August 2026, Nashville SC 4-1 Inter Miami. Across 6 meetings, Inter Miami have won 4, Nashville SC 2, with 0 drawn.
How accurate are these probabilities?
Accuracy is measured with Brier score and log loss over thousands of completed fixtures, which is what makes a 60% call mean roughly 60 in 100 — not a certainty about this one.
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